The Art of Ranking

Many thanks to the people that found my blog and left comments.  Today I want to take a moment to talk about putting together a draft list.  Specifically, in response to Kevin Ahrens and Jarrod Parker being ranked too low on my first Top 100 list.  It is very possible that they both are too low.  I had Ahrens listed at 54, which makes him a supplemental 1st round pick.  Then I had Parker at 69, which is a high 2nd round pick.  Ten years from now, we will know where they should have been ranked. 

For fun, lets see what happened twenty years ago in the 1987 draft

The list function is throwing data everywhere.  Please use this link to see the list.  http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/1987/Round-1-1.shtml

Hindsight is 20-20 when it comes to the draft.  So in hindsight seven of the top ten teams drafting in 1987 didn’t have players ranked properly.  So if I am wrong, I am not alone.

One thing to keep in mind when looking at the draft is that every team has their own scouts and ranks players on their own.  Since it is mathematically impossible for 30 different teams to rank prospects identically, everyone has a different list when they go into the draft.  My list could be similar to some teams, and very different from other teams.  But nobody knows for sure.  My plan is to publish my Top 100 list about once a week, so I can provide the best info that I have.

The same mathematical phenomena takes place in weekly polls of major college sports.  A bunch of experts, and/or coaches are polled, and everybody’s list is slightly different.  That doesn’t mean one expert is smarter than all the others.  It just means that people have different opinions.  You will also often notice that the polls don’t agree with each other.  The 20th place team on one poll could be ranked 17th and 21st on different polls in the same week.  I will get my updated list here in next couple of days.

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