Category: Dailies

Christmas Day = Draft Day

Christmas was my favorite day of the year growing up.  Gotta love those presents.  Now my favorite day of the year is Draft Day.  But unlike many Christmas gifts, baseball draft picks are gifts that keep giving and giving. 

Both Christmas Day and Draft Day are times filled with joy and hope for the future.  As an adult, the draft has become as exciting as Christmas was for me as a child.  First there is the excitement of draft day.  Question’s quickly morph one into the next: "Who will my team pick?"  and "Who are these guys?" 

Next is the anticipation of getting players signed and seeing their names in the box scores for the first time.  Following the minor league box scores is how I found out that the Twins had signed their 14th round pick Jeff Manship last year.   

But I never thought Manship would sign.  Manship had been a solid prospect coming out of high school.  He would have been drafted in the 2nd-4th rounds of the 2003 draft, if not for his committment to Notre Dame.  Injuries and inconsistency plagued him at Notre Dame and signability was again an issue going into the 2006 draft.  But he got drafted by the Twins, the best team at getting prospects to the majors, and he signed. 

He is on his way to being ranked as a top prospect after his solid 2007 season.  Now he hopes to follow Twins prospects Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker from the minors to the Major Leagues.  Hopefully your favorite team drafts some players that you can pin your hopes on to improve your team.  Best of luck to everyone on Draft Day.

Mock Draft -1st Round

I have sent e-mails to MLBlogs and to MLB themselves.  My Blog has been moved into readerless purgatory somehow and no one knows how to correct the issue.  So my Blog based around Thursday’s draft is falling on blind eyes during the most important time of the year, one could say.  Very unfortunate.

I don’t know if anyone will ever see or have a chance to read my Mock Draft, but I will do one anyway.  Best Guess is listed first, others listed second.  and of course, bonus demands and the Boras effect can ruin the best of predictions.

  1. Tampa Bay-David Price should be the only option
  2. Kansas City-Rick Porcello, but I would pick Weiters
  3. Cubs-Josh Vitters, Mike Moustakas, Or Matt Weiters
  4. Pittsburgh-Matt Weiters, or one of other four from above
  5. Baltimore-Ross Detwiler, smart pick with pitching coach Leo Mazzone
  6. Washington-Mike Moustakas or maybe Dan Moskos
  7. Milwaukee-Phillipe Aumount, Blake Beavan
  8. Colorado-Matt Dominguez, Dan Moskos, or Jason Heyward, could be wrong
  9. Arizona-Jason Heyward, Jarrod Parker, Blake Beavan, maybe Beau Mills
  10. San Francisco-Beau Mills, Aaron Poreda, Devon Mesoraco, Yasmil Grandal
  11. Seattle-Casey Weathers, Beau Mills, Blake Beavan
  12. Florida-Blake Beavan, Madison Baumgarner, Jarrod Parker, Michael Main
  13. Cleveland-Madison Baumgarner, Matt Dominguez, Devon Mesoraco
  14. Atlanta-Josh Smoker or Jason Heyward if he is still available
  15. Cincinnati-Kevin Ahrens, Casey Weathers if available, Devon Mesoraco
  16. Toronto-Dan Moskos, Aaron Poreda, Jarrod Parker, Joe Savery
  17. Texas-Matt Harvey, Julio Borbon, Michael Main, Joe Savery
  18. St. Louis-Andrew Brackman, Matt Harvey, James Simmons, Nick Schmidt
  19. Philadelphia-Jarrod Parker, Devon Mesoraco, Michael Burgess, Matt Harvey
  20. LA Dodgers-Jake McGeary, or whatever other HS pitcher drops to them
  21. Toronto-James Simmons, Nick Schmidt, Aaron Poreda, Wes Roemer
  22. San Francisco-Aaron Poreda, Nick Schmidt, Casey Weathers if he falls
  23. San Diego-Nick Schmidt, Devon Mesoraco, Nick Noonan
  24. Texas-Michael Main, Julio Borbon, Andrew Brackman if he falls
  25. White Sox-Chris Withrow, Devon Mesoraco, Yasmil Grandal
  26. Oakland-Matt LaPorta, Kyle Russell, Sean Doolittle, Devon Mesoraco
  27. Detroit-Devon Mesoraco, Tim Alderson, Michael Burgess, Nevin Griffith
  28. Minnesota-Peter Kozma, Will Middlebrooks, Nick Noonan, Wendell Fairley
  29. San Francisco-Brett Cecil, Yasmil Grandal, Mitch Canham,
  30. New York AL-Julio Borbon, Kyle Russell, Michael Burgess, Matt Mangini

Alfac Effect-1st Round or college

The 2005 Aflac High School Baseball Classic brings together 38 of the best draft eligible high school players in the country.  Lots of scouts show up to evaluate this select group of talented players.  But less than half the players will end up signing contracts and going pro.  The players from the 2004 and 2005 Aflac Classics were drafted in 2005 and 2006.  In 2006 only 17 of the 38 signed.  Less than half of the players signed each year.  This will be the third year that Aflac Classic players can be drafted.

Dellin Betances RHP 6′ 9" 215 Grand Street Campus School
(Brooklyn, NY)
Brent Brewer SS/OF 6′ 3" 195 Sandy Creek High School
(Tyrone, GA)
David Christensen OF 6′ 2" 195 Stoneman Douglas High School
(Parkland, FL)
Andrew Clark 1B 6′ 2" 200 New Palestine High School
(New Palestine, IN)
Cedric Hunter OF 6′ 1" 185 Martin Luther King High School
(Lithonia, GA)
Ryan Jackson SS 6′ 2" 170 Florida Christian School
(Miami, FL)
Jeremy Jeffress RHP 6′ 1" 180 Halifax County High School
(South Boston, VA)
Cody Johnson 1B/OF 6′ 4" 195 Mosley High School
(Panama City, FL)
Kasey Kiker LHP 5′ 11" 185 Russell County High School
(Phenix City, AL)
Torre Langley C 5′ 10" 175 Alexander High School
(Winston, GA)
Matt Latos RHP 6′ 5" 205 Coconut Creek High School
(Miami, FL)
Chris Marrero 3B 6′ 3" 195 Monsignor Pace High School
(Miami, FL)
Cory Rasmus RHP/3B 6′ 0" 198 Russell County High School
(Phenix City, AL)
Derrick Robinson OF 6′ 0" 170 P.K. Yonge High School
(Archer, FL)
Billy Rowell 3B/SS 6′ 4" 198 Bishop Eustace Prep
(Sewell, NJ)
Max Sapp C 6′ 2" 210 Bishop Moore High School
(Windermere, FL)
Gerald Sullivan RHP 6′ 4" 195 Mt. Olive High School
(Budd Lake, NJ)
Chris Walden RHP 6′ 3" 181 Bellefontaine High School
(Bellefontaine, OH)
Colton Willems RHP 6′ 4" 190 John Carroll High School
(Fort Pierce, FL)
2005 West Team
Name Pos. Hgt. Wgt. School
Ryan Adams SS 6′ 0" 185 Jesuit High School
(Mandeville, LA)
Robbie Alcombrack 3B/C 6′ 1" 205 Bear River High School
(Grass Valley, CA)
Brett Anderson LHP 6′ 4" 205 Stillwater High School
(Stillwater, OK)
Nathan Bridges SS 6′ 1" 170 Villa Park High School
(Yorba Linda, CA)
Gavin Brooks LHP/1B 6′ 3" 192 Rancho Buena Vista High School
(Vista, CA)
Hank Conger 3B/C 6′ 0" 210 Huntington Beach High School
(Huntington Beach, CA)
Kyle Drabek RHP/SS 6′ 0" 190 The Woodlands High School
(The Woodlands, TX)
Grant Green SS 6′ 3" 185 Canyon High School
(Anaheim Hills, CA)
Taylor Hammack LHP 6′ 3" 210 Angleton High School
(Angleton, TX)
Ryan Jenkins RHP 6′ 5" 195 Cypress Falls High School
(Houston, TX)
Aaron Miller LHP/1B 6′ 3" 200 Channelview High School
(Channelview, TX)
Jared Mitchell OF 6′ 0" 195 Westgate High School
(New Iberia, LA)
Chris Parmelee 1B 6′ 1" 200 Chino Hills High School
(Chino Hills, CA)
Jeff Rapoport OF 6′ 0" 183 Westlake High School
(Westlake, CA)
Chad Robinson RHP 6′ 5" 205 Silverado High School
(Las Vegas, NV)
Drew Rundle OF 6′ 3" 180 Bend High School
(Bend, OR)
Devin Shepherd OF 6′ 4" 230 Oxnard High School
(Oxnard, CA)
Chris Tillman RHP 6′ 5" 190 Fountain Valley High School
(Fountain Valley, CA)
Jordan Walden RHP 6′ 4" 185 Mansfield High School
(Mansfield, TX)

And then here is the list of players that signed after being drafted.

Card #                        Name                       High School                  Drafted By in 2006    Round Selected

1 of 14

Billy Rowell
Bishop Eustace
Baltimore Orioles
1
2 of 14
Kasey Kiker
Russell County
Texas Rangers
1
3 of 14
Chris Marrero
Monsignor Pace
Nationals
1
4 of 14
Jeremy Jeffress
Halifax County
Milwaukee Brewers
1
5 of 14
Kyle Drabek
The Woodlands
Philadelphia Phillies
1
6 of 14
Chris Parmelee
Chino Hills
Minnesota Twins
1
7 of 14
Colton Willems
John Carroll
Nationals
1
8 of 14
Cody Johnson
Mosley
Atlanta Braves
1
9 of 14
Hank Conger
Huntington Beach
Angels
1
10 of 14
Cory Rasmus
Russell County
Atlanta Braves
1
11 of 14
David Christensen
Stoneman Douglas
Colorado Rockies
2
12 of 14
Chris Tillman
Fountain Valley
Seattle Mariners
2
13 of 14
Torre Langley
Alexander
Florida Marlins
3
14 of 14
Robby Alcombrack
Bear River
Cleveland Indians
7

15   Brett Anderson signed late

16   Matt Latos signed late

17   Jonathan Walden signed late

So here is the list of players from the 2006 Aflac Classic.  If half of these players look like first rounders, logically then the other half are long shots to sign.  But some will sign.  So this is a good example of why predicting the baseball draft is more difficult than the football and basketball drafts.

So that is 12 of the 38 total Aflac players.  Lets say that I am right with 10 of the 12.  Lets be aggressive and sign that 19 players sign, which is more than ever before.   So best estimate is that only 9 of the 26 players that I did not list will sign pro contracts during this draft.  So being selected to play in the Aflac classic does not guarentee a Million Dollar bonus the next summer. 

Draft-and-follows sign

I went to the MLB site today, and didn’t see my blog on the list of blogs.  I have nothing prepared, but I want to save something and see if I show back up.  So today will be just some ramblings, no rankings.

This is the last year of the draft-and-follow rule.  Players drafted last year that attended junior college could be signed this year before the draft.  The biggest names this year were Matt Latos and Jordan Walden.  They have both signed big contracts and should start playing around June 20th this year. 

The draft-and-follow rule has also been used by Scott Boras to get around signing rules.  In 2006, it was Max Scherzer who didn’t sign with Arizona, quit college, and gambled that he would get more money by wasting one of the best years of his life.  Now he has signed for less money than he turned down last year.  He also has a huge target on his back for putting money ahead of the game.  My sad prediction for Scherzer is that he will never fully recover from the year away from organized baseball.  Injury will be a possibility if he is not prepared for the grind of minor league ball.   So he missed one year by holding out.  This year he will try to build up strength.  But if he gets hurts and needs surgery, then he misses another year, then after a year of rehab, he looks forward to another year of building up strength again.  So his timetable could have him making his major league debut in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, or never.

Don’t forget that the early part of the draft is being televised on ESPN2.  The draft has also been moved to Thursday and Friday this year.   Each year I take the first Tuesday in June off for the draft.  So this year, I had to change my request.

If you want to test your drafting ability, find out when your team drafts, and make your own picks.  I always draft in the Twins draft position.  You can do this real time by choosing an undrafted player.  Or you can do a delayed draft, where you choose players the following day.  Some of my most successful picks have been drafting Jake Peavy in the 6th round of the 1999 draft and Dontrelle Willis in the 3rd round in the 2000 draft.  Both of those players would look great in the Twins rotation this year.

2nd Tier College-Infielders

Most draft information get compilied on the the top players available.  But after the first five rounds, there are still 45 more rounds left to draft players.  Teams use these later picks on a combination of high ceiling raw physically talented athletes and lower ceiling hard working baseball players that know how to play the game.  Here are some lists of players that won’t be top picks, but they could still get drafted and given a chance to reach the majors.

Troy Clint  Robinson 1B 6*4 225 Senior .370-219-17-65-29-30-1
So Bama Cunningham, Jeff 1B L/R 6*3 215 Jr. .350-183-22-64-38-53-4
C of Charl Graham Maiden 1B L/L 6*3 215 Sr. .371-178-10-41-16-15-3
U of Az Ziegler, C.J. 1B R/R 6*4 225 Jr. .347-199-10-56-28-34-0
Hawaii Kris Sanchez 1B 6*3 220 Sr. .364-206-10-63-28-42-1
Memphis Adam Amar 1b R-R 6*4 235 Sr. .352-213-5-42-20-20-3
U of W Rindal, Curt 1B R/R 6*3 215 SR .350-214-9-48-16-28-0
MissippiSt Mitch Moreland 1B L-L 6*2 228 Jr. .342-202-7-50-29-25-1
La Tech Albie Goulder 1B 6*3 205 jr .327-196-14-51-26-34-3
NotreDame Mike Dury 1B S/L 6*5 240 SR .246-179-9-35-24-49-4
Michigan Nate Recknagel* 1B R-R 6*2 215 Jr. .358-193-10-54-40-36-4
MissippiSt Brian LaNinfa 1B L-R 6*0 220 Sr. .321-184-4-42-20-35-1
Ok St Ridling, Rebel 1B R/R 6*3 225 Jr. .336-232-11-62-15-57-1
Tex Chance Wheeless 1B 6*5 220 Sr.-3L .356-208-4-32-32-22-4
Flor Int’l Petika, John 1B L/L 6*2 210 Jr. .342-219-7-56-9-26-2
Or St Lennerton, Jordan 1B L/L 6*2 230 Jr. .327-159-6-42-26-31-0
Ark Hamblin, Danny 1B R/R 6*1 209 Sr. .278-205-20-54-28-61-2
USC Lucas Duda 1B 6*5 240 JR .275-171-6-31-29-32-3
Maine Joel Barrett 1B R/R 6*1 220 SR .364-184-7-38-25-19-2
LSU Jordan Mayer 1B R/R 6*3 257 Jr. .213-61-4-8-9-16-2
J Madison Moses, Mitchell 1B 6’3" 220 r-Sr. .347-150-4-20-33-18
Louisville Jorge Castillo 1B L/R 6*1 235 JR .290-183-4-42-8-24-1
South Flor Daniel, Brandin 1B L/L 6*1 220 Jr. .270-200-7-45-25-57-0
Wichita Jackson, Danny 1B R/R 6*3 220 RSr. .317-120-4-22-8-27-1
Elon Chris Vasami 1B R/R 6*4 235 Sr. .315-197-5-44-21-44-2
Memphis Joey Lieberman 1B R-R 5*10 210 Sr. .286-220-12-52-29-53-0
Florida St Brandon Reichert 1B RR 6*3 215 RS SR .313-201-3-46-15-24-1

Many college players end up playing out of position, wherever the team needs them to play.  So they often play numerous positions during the year.  Because of this many college rosters list players not at a position, but as "Infielders".  So I will have lists of players for each position, add also "infielders".

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Top 100-one week ’til draft

When the draft starts next Thursday the Number One overall pick will be one of three players.  Tampa Bay will select either David Price, college pitcher, Matt Weiters, college catcher, or Josh Vitters, high school third baseman.

Each of the 30 major league clubs will spend the next seven days cramming for the draft, baseballs equivelent of a final exam.  And each teams draft list will be different.  Sure, most of the top players on one teams list will look much like other teams lists.  But after the first round, the lists are very different.  Some teams will have 80 high school players in their top 100 players.  Other teams could have a majority of college players on their list.  Ten years from now, we will know who had the best draft.

My list of the top 100 players has changed over the last three weeks.  Some players like HS 3B Will Middlebrooks and HS OF Cory Vaughn (son of Greg Vaughn) have moved up the list.  Others like Clemson lefty Dan Moskos, Oklahoma State 3B Matt Mangini, and offense-first college catchers J.P. Arencibia and Mitch Canhamn have moved down the list.  Like I said, there are 30 teams with thirty different draft lists, and my list is just one more. 

Ok St Mach, Tyler 2B R/R 6*0 207 Sr. .408-223-15-73-21-24-1
ASU Eric Sogard 2B L/R 5*10 180 Jr./2V .399-203-10-51-37-22-16
C of Charl Chris Campbell 2B R/R 5*10 170 Sr. .388-255-10-77-17-14-4
Flor Atlant Robbie Widlansky 2B 6*2 210 JR .445-227-15-67-23-27-9
So Missip Trey Sutton 2B L/R 6*0 175 JR .370-235-7-37-34-19-12
Minnesota Dan Lyons

<td class="

1 David Price P C L-L 6*5 195
2 Matt Wieters C C B-R 6*4 205
3 Josh Vitters 3b H R-R 6*3 195
4 Rick Porcello P H R-R 6*5 188
5 Mike Moustakas 3b H L-R 6*1 185
6 Phillippe Aumont P H R-R 6*7 225
7 Jason Heyward of H L-L 6*2 198
8 Blake Beavan P H R-R 6*7 210
9 Ross Detwiler P C L-L
10 Beau Mills 1B C L-R 6*3 205
11 Matt Dominguez 3b H R-R 6*2 185
12 MadisonBumgarner P H R-L 6*5 220
13 Michael Main P H R-R 6*1 171
14 Josh Smoker P H L-L 6*2 190
15 Matt LaPorta 1b C
16 Andrew Brackman p C R-R 6*9 230
17 Casey Weathers P C R-R
18 Tim Alderson P H R-R 6*7 208
19 Kevin Ahrens 3b H B-R 6*1 180
20 Devon Mesaraco C H
21 Nevin Griffith P H R-R 6*4 180
22 Jarrod Parker P H R-R 6*0 175
23 Matt Harvey P H R-R 6*4 190
24 Will Middlebrooks 3b H 6*4 200
25 Daniel Moskos P C L-L 6*1 190
26 Michael Burgess of H L-L 5*11 200
27 Todd Frazier 3B C R-R 6*3 195
28 Corey Borwn of C L-L 6*2 210
29 Kellen Kulbacki of C
30 Brett Cecil p C R-L 6*2 225
31 Nick Schmidt P C L-L 6*4 215
32 Brad Suttle 3b C
33 Travis d’Arnaud C H R-R 6*0 180
34 Jack McGeary P H L-L 6*3 200
35 Kyle Blair P H R-R 6*4 200
36 Drew Cumberland ss H L-R 5*10 170
37 Joe Savery 1B C L-L 6*3 210
38 Kyle Russell of C
39 Peter Kozma ss H R-R